The Missing Rung: AI and the Vanishing Entry-Level Job

Jack O’Connor sent 85 job applications before summer turned to fall.
Azraiel Raines watched her “dream first job” at the State Department vanish overnight with a government downsizing.
And on an online forum, a business graduate with triple majors and three internships—credentials that once guaranteed a launchpad—logged her 900th application, still unemployed after 17 months.

Different stories, same pattern: the first rung of the career ladder isn’t holding. For decades, entry-level jobs absorbed new graduates into the workplace, offering a place to “learn the ropes.” Today, that rung is wobbling—and in many cases, disappearing altogether.

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The Vanishing First Rung

Christine Cruzvergara of Handshake, an early-career platform, describes a “messy process” where employers themselves aren’t sure what they want. Entry-level roles, once defined by grunt work—compiling reports, cleaning data, drafting first passes—are being automated or restructured. “Employers are going to have new expectations around how you use AI,” she told PBS. “The skill set for an entry-level worker will look different.”

The result: more graduates chasing fewer opportunities. The New York Fed’s Jaison Abel calls it “one of the most challenging job markets in a decade.” Consulting firms have delayed start dates. Tech companies are slowing hiring. Government freezes ripple through agencies. And layered on top of this uncertainty, AI is steadily eating away at the training ground that entry-level work used to provide.

Jack O’Connor’s 85 unanswered applications aren’t just a sign of a tight market; they’re evidence of a broken system where the volume of candidates far outweighs the available rungs.

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Beyond the Job Hunt — The College Question

If the first rung is breaking, what about the ladder beneath it? For Gen Z, the once-stable link between college and career is fraying. As U.S. News contributor Lila Dominus writes, “college doesn’t come with the same guarantees that it did for our parents’ and grandparents’ generations.” Tuition has doubled, yet more than half of graduates in 2024 were working in jobs that didn’t require a degree a year later.

Even the “safe” majors—computer science, engineering, climate sciences—aren’t immune. AI is undercutting entry-level technical work. Federal research budgets are shrinking. Green jobs have been slashed. The college-to-career pipeline is leaking at every seam.

Azraiel Raines’s detour into university outreach is part of that broader fragility: even when grads land jobs, they often aren’t the roles they trained for or aspired to—evidence that the ladder’s second and third rungs are also weakening.

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The Apprenticeship Gap

Here lies the heart of the problem: AI doesn’t just remove tasks, it removes the apprenticeship that came with them. Past generations learned judgment by doing—rewriting a draft for the third time, reconciling a messy spreadsheet, shadowing a mentor through the grind. Today’s AI systems can do much of that work in seconds.

So where do new entrants learn craft? Where do they practice judgment, make small mistakes, and build tacit knowledge if they never touch the raw material?

This is the “apprenticeship gap.” And without addressing it, we risk building a generation of workers who are credentialed but unseasoned, creative but untested.

Pinkerbelle’s 900 applications and 13 last-round rejections are more than personal heartbreak—they show what happens when the apprenticeship function collapses. Without rungs to climb, even highly credentialed graduates are left circling the ladder, unable to get on.

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Why Employers Are Skipping the First Rung

Employers aren’t simply eliminating entry-level roles because AI can do the work. Their behavior reflects a blend of economic pressures, technological substitution, and structural barriers that make apprenticeship-like training difficult to sustain.

• Economic and Cost Pressures: Persistent inflation, high interest rates, and political volatility make firms cautious. Onboarding and mentorship are seen as costs to be minimized. Hiring fewer, “safer” candidates is easier than investing in broad-based training.
• Automation vs. Training: Over half of surveyed employers say automating onboarding and routine tasks yields faster returns than hiring new cohorts. AI and automation now cover much of the “grunt work” that once trained juniors.
• “Unicorn” Expectations: Companies look for hybrid, “ready-now” talent—candidates who already blend AI literacy, project management, and industry knowledge. The result: prolonged searches, unrealistic expectations, and fewer hires.
• Mentorship Infrastructure Gaps: 63% of employers admit to persistent skill gaps, yet most onboarding programs are short and shallow. Without robust mentorship systems, employers lean on automation instead of developing talent. Mentor Collective calls mentorship “strategic infrastructure,” but in practice, outdated systems and fragmented resources mean many firms skip building it.

In short: automation is easier than apprenticeship, and cost-cutting is easier than coaching. Until we fix those incentives, the first rung will continue to collapse.

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Possible Paths Forward

The challenge is real, but not insurmountable. Apprenticeships and work-based learning are being reimagined to meet the very gaps AI is opening up.

• Structured Apprenticeships (Beyond the Trades): Lightcast data shows apprenticeships are expanding well beyond electricians and plumbers into fields like IT, healthcare, and management. IBM has built programs for software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and data scientists. CVS scaled pharmacy technician apprenticeships during the COVID crisis. Employers are finding these programs deliver reliable pipelines and broaden access to underrepresented groups. Nearly nine in ten participants in U.S. apprenticeships are STARs—workers skilled through alternative routes rather than bachelor’s degrees. New apprenticeships attract more women and workers of color than traditional degree-based pathways.
• AI as Co-Pilot for Skill-Building: Instead of eliminating tacit learning, AI can be redesigned to expose its reasoning and invite critique. Employers and policymakers see this as essential: America’s Talent Strategy explicitly calls for AI literacy, scenario-based training, and rapid reskilling pilots so workers don’t just consume AI outputs, but learn from them.
• Universities Integrating AI Literacy and Work-Based Learning: Both reports highlight that the “college-for-all” model is failing. Universities can help fill the gap by embedding AI skills into general education and expanding co-op, micro-internship, and pre-apprenticeship experiences. The federal government is signaling support here—through Workforce Pell for short-term training, and initiatives to integrate apprenticeships with career and technical education starting as early as middle school.
• Employers as Mentors and Sponsors: Lightcast notes that employers, not unions, are now the main sponsors of new apprenticeship programs. That shift underscores the opportunity—and responsibility—for companies to take an intentional role in talent development. Mentorship, structured rotations, and work-based learning are no longer “nice-to-haves.” They are essential replacements for the tacit training once baked into entry-level work.
• Inclusive Pathways and STARs: Apprenticeships open doors for STARs—half of the U.S. workforce, including two-thirds of Black workers and more than half of Hispanic workers. In occupations where bachelor’s degrees once acted as a gatekeeper, apprenticeships are proving to be a more inclusive, skills-based on-ramp.

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Lessons from Abroad

Other countries offer blueprints for rebuilding the missing rung with apprenticeship at the center:

Model	How It Works	Why It Matters	Sources
Germany: Dual Vocational Training System	Students split time between vocational school and a paid apprenticeship in a company (2–3½ years). Standards are set nationally, and apprentices are employees from day one.	Ensures tacit learning, strong employer involvement, and social legitimacy. Apprenticeships are mainstream, not a fallback.	BIBB, Germany.info
UK: Degree Apprenticeships	Workers earn a wage while studying toward a bachelor’s (Level 6) or master’s (Level 7) degree, with tuition costs supported by employers and government.	Bridges higher education and work. Offers relevance, mentorship, and credentials—addressing the “college without career” dilemma.	UK Parliament Briefing, Universities UK
U.S. Emerging Models	Apprenticeships expanding in IT, healthcare, management; employers like IBM, CVS, and regional consortia leading programs.	Still small-scale compared to Europe, but growing. Can be a lever for inclusion, STAR access, and AI-era skills.	Lightcast/Opportunity@Work

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Closing Reflection

The first job has never been perfect, but it has always been formative. It was where people learned the difference between theory and practice, between being smart and being wise. Today, that space is eroding—caught between cautious employers, rising costs of education, and the accelerating reach of AI.

Jack O’Connor’s unanswered applications, Azraiel Raines’s detour into a job she never trained for, and Pinkerbelle’s 900 rounds of rejection are not just personal struggles. They are symptoms of a system that has let the first rungs of the career ladder splinter. If nothing changes, more graduates will face shallow development, delayed mastery, and fragile career paths.

But imagine a different future:

• Jack isn’t ghosted; he enters an apprenticeship where AI helps him critique real reporting work.
• Azraiel takes a hybrid role where her global studies degree feeds into a structured government apprenticeship program.
• Pinkerbelle isn’t left circling the ladder—she’s welcomed into a STAR-friendly pathway where mentorship and training are part of the deal.

That future is possible—but only if we act.

Here’s what needs to happen:

• Employers must stop waiting for unicorns and start building talent. Launch an apprenticeship, redesign onboarding into true mentorship, or pilot AI as a teaching tool. One well-structured program can ripple across an entire talent pipeline.
• Universities must weave AI literacy and work-based learning into the core curriculum—not as electives, but as essentials.
• Policymakers must double down on scaling apprenticeships, aligning funding (like Workforce Pell) to outcomes, and lowering barriers for STARs to access quality jobs.

The single most important thing employers can do tomorrow: replace a job posting with an apprenticeship.

Not as charity, but as strategy—because in the age of AI, talent won’t appear ready-made. It must be grown, rung by rung.

Madam I’m Adam

Sources

• PBS Newshour, “New college graduates face one of the most challenging markets for entry level jobs in a decade” (2025). Transcript, Christine Cruzvergara interview.
• NPR, Scott Horsley, “‘Panicking’: Why recent college grads are struggling to find jobs” (July 13, 2025).
• U.S. News & World Report, Lila Dominus, “In a Tough Job Market, What Is College For?” (Aug. 19, 2025).
• College Confidential Forum, “I graduated in May 2024 and I can’t find a job — what am I doing wrong?” (Thread, 2025).
• Lightcast & Opportunity@Work, The Changing Face of Apprenticeships: New Opportunities for Employers and STARs (2022).
• Business Roundtable / WorkingNation, America’s Talent Strategy: Building the Workforce for the Golden Age (2023).
• Mentor Collective, “Mentorship Meets AI: The Infrastructure Today’s Institutions and Employers Need” (2025).
• North American Community Hub, “Latest Job Market Trends: Why 20% of U.S. Companies Plan to Slow Hiring” (2025).
• UK Parliament, House of Commons Library, “Degree Apprenticeships” (Briefing Paper, 2024).
• Universities UK, “The Future of Degree Apprenticeships” (2021).
• Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB, Germany), “Vocational Training in Germany: The Dual System” (2023).
• Germany.info, “Germany’s Vocational Training System” (2024).